Some of the recent winners advised on NMP include:
Encore d'Or 10/3
Lancelot du Lac 3/1
Summerville Boy 9/1
Coo Star Sivola 10/1
Benie Des Dieux 9/2
Mister Whitaker 8/1
Presenting Percy 16/1
Balko Des Flos 8/1
Missed Approach 20/1
The latest news from Northern Monkey Punter.
Author: Wayne Finter | Date: 29th August 2017
Nakeeta had been labelled a bridesmaid by some as, although he won the Old Borough Cup at Haydock in 2015, he came up short several times in big handicaps last year - at Chester, Ascot, York and Leopardstown.
Often, however, it seemed to me like it was a matter of timing, rather than a bad attitude, which proved his downfall.
Members were, therefore, advised to make him their main bet for the Ebor at York last weekend - with him being backable as big as 16/1 first thing on Saturday morning......
"The Ebor is a tightly knit handicap these days as you needed a mark of 102 to get a run this year and there is only 8lb separating top and bottom weight. With that in mind, having a useful claiming apprentice on board could potentially be a big advantage.
Iain Jardine booked 7lb claimer Clifford Lee for Shrewd last year, who finished second to Heartbreak City, and I think it is interesting that he's booked another apprentice - Callum Rodriguez - this year for NAKEETA.
Rodriguez, who boasts a level stakes profit to SP (+£19), BSP (+£35) and has won 19 % more often than statistical expectations in 180 Flat races this season, has impressed me this season when riding Intense Romance as he was cool-as-a-cucumber that day he won at Newcastle. He also gave Foxy Boy a very good patient ride that day he won at cramped odds at Haydock.
I think he's worth his 5lb claim and his ability isn't yet fully being completely factored into his odds. The weight he takes off looks a massive plus for Nakeeta, who was a perennial hard luck story last season.
He was beaten by a short head in the Chester Cup and had a number of near misses, such as at this track and also Ascot.
Perhaps his most heartbreaking defeat, however, was that day at Leopardstown, in the November handicap when he kicked into the lead but was worn down by Golden Spear in the final strides (Magic Circle, who is 9/1 here after winning here on Wednesday, was back in third as it happens while the fifth, Snow Falcon, has also won in Ireland this week to serve us a reminder of the worth of that particular formline).
Jardine said he was being aimed at this race last year but he was rated around 97 at that time and unfortunately missed the cut. This time he has crept in at the bottom of the handicap though and, with his jockey's claim, he's effectively running off a mark of 98 here, which is 1lb lower than the mark off which he was narrowly beaten in the Irish November handicap.
I liked his performance here in Listed company off unfavourable terms behind Dal Harraild two runs back, demonstrating (again) his effectiveness at the track, while there was no shame in his last run at Newmarket, when he was keen early on but travelled right into contention before paying for those exertions late on.
The return to this flat track looks ideal for him in view of the fact his best performances have come at level tracks like York, Haydock, Chester and Leopardstown - they just seem to suit his style of running better than Newmarket.
On his second start since being gelded I also want a small bet on BATTERSEA. He held his own in some tough Meydan handicaps last year and, notably, was fourth in this race off a mark of 107 last season.
He's 2lb lower now, and with David Egan, another smart 5lb claimer, easing his mark further, he's effectively 7lb lower this year. We've a dry forecast at York today and drying ground is exactly what Roger Varian's six-year-old wants."
Author: Wayne Finter | Date: 25th August 2017
2017 has been a frustrating summer for the service with so many selections finishing second and narrowly getting beaten, but it was nice to see Marsha land the Nunthorpe for us at York on Friday.
Members were advised to back her at 10/1 to 8/1 and were told:
"The clash between Battaash and Lady Aurelia has been one of the talking points in the lead up to the Ebor meeting.
Both have been supremely impressive of late, but, when all is said and done, do you really want to take a price around 7/4 for either of them when there is little option to take out economical insurance to guard against a near miss at the hands of the other? I don't, as there are also other proven Group 1 performers in the race to consider as well.
The key horse to this whole race - despite what the pundits and the betting says - is 33/1 shot Take Cover. He has lots of early speed and if he were to match strides with Lady Aurelia then he could potentially bustle her up and set this up for a closer.
The pair clashed, on paper at least, in the King's Stand, and Take Cover actually showed the superior trap craft to slip into the early lead, but the key thing to note about that race was that there were effectively two races for the price of one; Take Cover headed those racing towards the far side of the track, while Lady Aurelia pretty much did her own thing and controlled matters towards the stands rail - without eyeballing Take Cover and being hindered by him - which may have been the case if they'd raced in one central group.
I would be interested to see them eyeball to eyeball today as the field size is smaller and there is a greater chance they'll all race in one cluster - lets see if Lady Aurelia can confirm what she showed at Ascot and become a true great.
There is a danger, though, her finishing effort might just be muted if she is taken out of her comfort zone (if Take Cover isn't outclassed and can get near her).
A potential pace duel would obviously suit the tactically versatile Battaash, who announced himself on the big stage when winning at Goodwood. He tanked his way through that race, taking a lead off Take Cover, and beat a solid yardstick, Profitable, who looks a big each-way price himself today at 16/1, but having watched the replay back countless times I have concluded that although Profitable was perhaps beaten fair and square, MARSHA can have her effort upgraded somewhat for finishing third.
She isn't always going to be fun to watch when Luke Morris is trusted with the reins - he's one of the most unsightly riders in the weighing room - but she was undeniably hampered last time in an incident that started when Profitable tried to make some ground upsides Take Cover but was shuffled back. Marsha was caught up in the melee and had to be switched for a run.
She made some nice late progress though and deserves another chance, especially since this drying ground will also be in her favour.
Those with the service earlier in the year will remember we had a very good bet on her - a MAX bet infact - for the King's Stand, and I am still of the opinion she's good enough to win a Group 1 in Britain.
Let's not forget her impressive win in the l'Abbaye at Chantilly last season or her notable Palace House victory this year - when she gave weight away and still got the job done first time out.
A secondary bet on Profitable, who is disgustingly big at 16/1, is also recommended. He is tied in with the two market leaders as well as Marsha, so we cannot overlook him, even if he did seem to be beaten fair and square by Battaash last time. He's a class horse and won't mind any bits of juice lingering in the ground."
Author: Wayne Finter | Date: 7th June 2017
It has been a slow start to the new turf season for us and we recorded a loss of -14 pts in April - we had a string of near misses but it is winners, not placed selections, that can turn a losing month into a winning one.
May was steady away month and we recorded a profit of +5.35 pts on record. In reality, however, members achieved closer to 10 pts profit - the difference being a result of me settling my multiple bets at SP on record. We had a winning double involving a selection who was strongly backed just before the off.
The profit and loss figures show the 2017 service is -35 pts in the red since November (a -7 % ROI) but we know long-term, based on thousands of proofed bets, that NMP has a ROI edge of +10 % over the bookmakers......it could only be a matter of time until results start to correct themselves and, consequently, now may well be the best time to join my service.
Summer is traditionally the service's most profitable period and once the recent wet weather clears up I expect we'll be able to build on the May profit and kick on for the year.