Some of the recent winners advised on NMP include:
Old Guard 11/2
High Bridge 11/4
Presenting Percy 7/2
Definitly Red 9/4
Gas Line Boy 8/1
Gorgeous Noora 11/4
Verdana Blue 4/1
Limited Reserve 9/2
Sam Spinner 15/2
Mala Beach 12/1
Red Verdon 5/2
The latest news from Northern Monkey Punter.
Author: Wayne Finter | Date: 10th December 2017
I look forward to the Becher Chase, which is run over the Grand National fences at Aintree, each year.
We were on the winner (Vieux Lion Rouge) in 2016 and we had the winner on side yesterday too - Blaklion.
Members were advised to back him at 5/1 to 4/1 earlier in the week and he ended up being backed into 7/4 on the day, winning by nine lengths and producing a performance which shot him to the fore of the betting for the Grand National.
We were also on the horse who had finished third behind Blaklion (second) in the Charlie Hall on his reappearance, Definitly Red, who won a Grade 2 chase on the Mildmay course by an easy seven lengths, despite drifting to 9/4.
We did have two losing selections at Sandown on the day (William H Bonney and Doing Fine) but completed a hat-trick with the Aintree picks when Gas Line Boy (advised at top price of 8/1) hacked up in the Grand Sefton.
He was almost brought down by a faller at one point but thankfully kept on his feet before powering his way to a comfortable victory over the National fences.
We boosted our return on Gas Line Boy by backing him in a double at 6/1 with Katiymann, who had won on the all-weather at Dundalk at 9/4.
Gas Line Boy alone winning on the day was worth around 12-10 pts (top to bottom prices) alone, even before the wins from Definitly Red and Blaklion (who had been a strong 2 pt fancy and the biggest bet of the day) were factored in!
It continued a good start to the new jumps season, following on from recent NH successes from Sam Spinner, Old Guard, High Bridge, Mala Beach, Verdana Blue and Limited Reserve.
Author: Wayne Finter | Date: 12th November 2017
NMP members ended the 2017 season on a high on Saturday with two winners trained by Ian Williams, who completed a quick across-the-cards double at Wincanton and Doncaster.
London Prize won the Elite Hurdle by three lengths at an SP of 4/1 (had been advised at 9/2 to 4/1) and then, 15 minutes later up at Doncaster, Saunter plundered the feature race of the day - the November Handicap - winning by one-and-a-quarter lengths on what was only his second start for the stable.
Members had been advised to back Saunter at 14/1 to 12/1 midweek as soon as the booking of Jim Crowley had been announced and were then advised to back him in a double with stablemate London Prize closer to the race, too (Saunter was a best price of 10/1 at that point). He returned 6/1 at SP after being the subject of a late gamble.
It was a very good afternoon as the pair were the two main bets of the weekend on the service. Winning singles and a winning double were thus returned.
Author: Wayne Finter | Date: 16th October 2017
Well, well, well, what a wonderful weekend that was!
It would be fair to say NMP members have been really unlucky with regards to the fate of our multiple selections this year - with Orion's Bow, Home Of The Brave and Jumira Bridge just some of those who have been narrowly touched off to deny us some big paydays.
There is only so long bad luck can count against you though and we made up for it in style with Withhold landing a huge ante post gamble in the Cesarewitch last weekend (pictured far left in the blue silks, (c) Ed Whitaker, Racing Post).
Roger Charlton's charge was backed off the boards after first show, with his price collapsing to 5/1 from 9/1, but NMP members were advised to have a decent ante post wager on him at 25/1 after his eyecatching prep run at Newbury weeks before the big race.
Members had also been advised to back him in a 55/1 double with his stablemate, Blakeney Point, who won at 10/3 (SP) at Leicester in the week leading up to the Cesarewitch as the stable had their horses in superb form at the time.
Members were told Withhold may improve for the step up in trip at Newmarket, as he would likely creep in off a lovely, low racing weight and may have his normal headgear, which had been omitted for his prep run, reapplied at HQ.
The booking of Silvestre De Sousa at the final declaration stage was the icing on the cake and the horse absolutely bolted up after tacking over from a wide draw and being given a prominent ride, breaking the track record and winning eased down.
As Roger Charlton told ITV Racing after the race, "it was a demolition job, really"!
Author: Wayne Finter | Date: 30th September 2017
Andrew Balding did us a good turn last week when his Brorocco kept on stylishly down the outside of the field under David Probert, landing a big Saturday handicap at Newbury. He went on record at 9/1, though some members obtained marginally larger prices in the morning.
Balding came up trumps the following weekend when Donjuan Triumphant got up in a photo finish to win the rearranged Gold Cup for us at Haydock.
The prestigious 6f sprint was originally scheduled to take place at Ayr the previous week and we had backed him as a strong ante post selection at prices up to 16/1. Those bets were voided when the entire Western meeting was abandoned due to a waterlogged track, though we kept the faith, reinvested some of the returned stake and the former Richard Fahey representative dug in well under PJ McDonald to get up in the final strides for a 10/1 winner!
Author: Wayne Finter | Date: 29th August 2017
Nakeeta had been labelled a bridesmaid by some as, although he won the Old Borough Cup at Haydock in 2015, he came up short several times in big handicaps last year - at Chester, Ascot, York and Leopardstown.
Often, however, it seemed to me like it was a matter of timing, rather than a bad attitude, which proved his downfall.
Members were, therefore, advised to make him their main bet for the Ebor at York last weekend - with him being backable as big as 16/1 first thing on Saturday morning......
"The Ebor is a tightly knit handicap these days as you needed a mark of 102 to get a run this year and there is only 8lb separating top and bottom weight. With that in mind, having a useful claiming apprentice on board could potentially be a big advantage.
Iain Jardine booked 7lb claimer Clifford Lee for Shrewd last year, who finished second to Heartbreak City, and I think it is interesting that he's booked another apprentice - Callum Rodriguez - this year for NAKEETA.
Rodriguez, who boasts a level stakes profit to SP (+£19), BSP (+£35) and has won 19 % more often than statistical expectations in 180 Flat races this season, has impressed me this season when riding Intense Romance as he was cool-as-a-cucumber that day he won at Newcastle. He also gave Foxy Boy a very good patient ride that day he won at cramped odds at Haydock.
I think he's worth his 5lb claim and his ability isn't yet fully being completely factored into his odds. The weight he takes off looks a massive plus for Nakeeta, who was a perennial hard luck story last season.
He was beaten by a short head in the Chester Cup and had a number of near misses, such as at this track and also Ascot.
Perhaps his most heartbreaking defeat, however, was that day at Leopardstown, in the November handicap when he kicked into the lead but was worn down by Golden Spear in the final strides (Magic Circle, who is 9/1 here after winning here on Wednesday, was back in third as it happens while the fifth, Snow Falcon, has also won in Ireland this week to serve us a reminder of the worth of that particular formline).
Jardine said he was being aimed at this race last year but he was rated around 97 at that time and unfortunately missed the cut. This time he has crept in at the bottom of the handicap though and, with his jockey's claim, he's effectively running off a mark of 98 here, which is 1lb lower than the mark off which he was narrowly beaten in the Irish November handicap.
I liked his performance here in Listed company off unfavourable terms behind Dal Harraild two runs back, demonstrating (again) his effectiveness at the track, while there was no shame in his last run at Newmarket, when he was keen early on but travelled right into contention before paying for those exertions late on.
The return to this flat track looks ideal for him in view of the fact his best performances have come at level tracks like York, Haydock, Chester and Leopardstown - they just seem to suit his style of running better than Newmarket.
On his second start since being gelded I also want a small bet on BATTERSEA. He held his own in some tough Meydan handicaps last year and, notably, was fourth in this race off a mark of 107 last season.
He's 2lb lower now, and with David Egan, another smart 5lb claimer, easing his mark further, he's effectively 7lb lower this year. We've a dry forecast at York today and drying ground is exactly what Roger Varian's six-year-old wants."
Author: Wayne Finter | Date: 25th August 2017
2017 has been a frustrating summer for the service with so many selections finishing second and narrowly getting beaten, but it was nice to see Marsha land the Nunthorpe for us at York on Friday.
Members were advised to back her at 10/1 to 8/1 and were told:
"The clash between Battaash and Lady Aurelia has been one of the talking points in the lead up to the Ebor meeting.
Both have been supremely impressive of late, but, when all is said and done, do you really want to take a price around 7/4 for either of them when there is little option to take out economical insurance to guard against a near miss at the hands of the other? I don't, as there are also other proven Group 1 performers in the race to consider as well.
The key horse to this whole race - despite what the pundits and the betting says - is 33/1 shot Take Cover. He has lots of early speed and if he were to match strides with Lady Aurelia then he could potentially bustle her up and set this up for a closer.
The pair clashed, on paper at least, in the King's Stand, and Take Cover actually showed the superior trap craft to slip into the early lead, but the key thing to note about that race was that there were effectively two races for the price of one; Take Cover headed those racing towards the far side of the track, while Lady Aurelia pretty much did her own thing and controlled matters towards the stands rail - without eyeballing Take Cover and being hindered by him - which may have been the case if they'd raced in one central group.
I would be interested to see them eyeball to eyeball today as the field size is smaller and there is a greater chance they'll all race in one cluster - lets see if Lady Aurelia can confirm what she showed at Ascot and become a true great.
There is a danger, though, her finishing effort might just be muted if she is taken out of her comfort zone (if Take Cover isn't outclassed and can get near her).
A potential pace duel would obviously suit the tactically versatile Battaash, who announced himself on the big stage when winning at Goodwood. He tanked his way through that race, taking a lead off Take Cover, and beat a solid yardstick, Profitable, who looks a big each-way price himself today at 16/1, but having watched the replay back countless times I have concluded that although Profitable was perhaps beaten fair and square, MARSHA can have her effort upgraded somewhat for finishing third.
She isn't always going to be fun to watch when Luke Morris is trusted with the reins - he's one of the most unsightly riders in the weighing room - but she was undeniably hampered last time in an incident that started when Profitable tried to make some ground upsides Take Cover but was shuffled back. Marsha was caught up in the melee and had to be switched for a run.
She made some nice late progress though and deserves another chance, especially since this drying ground will also be in her favour.
Those with the service earlier in the year will remember we had a very good bet on her - a MAX bet infact - for the King's Stand, and I am still of the opinion she's good enough to win a Group 1 in Britain.
Let's not forget her impressive win in the l'Abbaye at Chantilly last season or her notable Palace House victory this year - when she gave weight away and still got the job done first time out.
A secondary bet on Profitable, who is disgustingly big at 16/1, is also recommended. He is tied in with the two market leaders as well as Marsha, so we cannot overlook him, even if he did seem to be beaten fair and square by Battaash last time. He's a class horse and won't mind any bits of juice lingering in the ground."
Author: Wayne Finter | Date: 7th June 2017
It has been a slow start to the new turf season for us and we recorded a loss of -14 pts in April - we had a string of near misses but it is winners, not placed selections, that can turn a losing month into a winning one.
May was steady away month and we recorded a profit of +5.35 pts on record. In reality, however, members achieved closer to 10 pts profit - the difference being a result of me settling my multiple bets at SP on record. We had a winning double involving a selection who was strongly backed just before the off.
The profit and loss figures show the 2017 service is -35 pts in the red since November (a -7 % ROI) but we know long-term, based on thousands of proofed bets, that NMP has a ROI edge of +10 % over the bookmakers......it could only be a matter of time until results start to correct themselves and, consequently, now may well be the best time to join my service.
Summer is traditionally the service's most profitable period and once the recent wet weather clears up I expect we'll be able to build on the May profit and kick on for the year.
Author: Wayne Finter | Date: 18th March 2017
Bookmakers generally seemed to have the upper hand over the punters at this year's Festival and, Thursday aside, it was a bookies benefit meeting.
The NMP selections broke even over the course of the week, though, with the winners including Apple's Jade (9/2) in the Mares' Hurdle, Supasundae (20/1) in the Coral Cup and Presenting Percy (8/1) in the Pertemps Final.
We had Let's Dance in the Mares' Novice Hurdle at 5/2 in a double with another jumps pick before the Festival, while we also had Defi Du Seuil (Triumph Hurdle) at 11/4 in a nice double with a sprint winner at Lingfield.
However, the most pleasing result of the week for us - by some way - was the Cheltenham Gold Cup as we were on the impressive winner Sizing John at ante post prices up to 33/1 and also went in on the day again because I was so keen on him. Members were told on the morning of the race,
"We are on three in the Gold Cup but SIZING JOHN, by far, is the one that interests me most this morning as he oozes class and the ground has come up perfect for him.
Robbie Power gave him a brilliant ride in the Irish Gold Cup and having a man that is unfazed on the big stage is also a big plus.
The big question is whether he will stay the trip, but he is unexposed over it and the manner he kept on over 3m in Ireland last time suggested Jessica Harrington, who has already been among the winners this week, simply had to go for this race with him.
Djakadam is a danger having enjoyed a smoother prep than 12 months ago when second (would have been third if Cue Card hadn't fallen) but he's 3/1 and Sizing John is almost treble his price.
Native River has enjoyed a superb season and, for all the 8/1 we have about him is a great bet, he has slight doubts over the ground even if he is fully proven over the trip.
I cannot have Cue Card at all. Cheltenham is no place for old bones and his chance was last year when he fell. Sentiment has undoubtedly influenced his price (and may drive it in further today).
Outlander is unlikely to be good enough (Gordon Elliott preferred Empire of Dirt but the owner wanted that one in the Ryanair), Champagne West and Bristol De Mai could be lambs to the slaughter as they struggle to match strides with Native River upfront and I would worry More Of That, a bleeder, might not even complete, despite glowing reports from the gallops.
Of the rest, there is only one I think is good enough to potentially win a Gold Cup, Minella Rocco, and we are on him at good prices previously. The jockey bookings getting shuffled after the injury to Mark Walsh (Fehily now rides as Coleman shifts to More of That) boosts his claims and I think he could run a race at a price if those from further back in the field can get into it.
However, I don't think he, too, has the class of Sizing John, who has a gorgeous profile for the race. I am all over him and have put my free bets from William Hill on him as I still think he's a very good price this morning!
He was campaigned over the wrong trip, it seems, for Henry de Bromhead but has really come to life this season as Harrington has stepped him up in distance."
We were also on the Gold Cup second, Minella Rocco, at prices up to 33/1 ante post, while we had the third, Native River, on side ante post at 8/1 too. If anyone played a tricast on those three it paid £521.34 to a £1 stake, while the Trifecta on the Tote paid £584.20!
Personally, I did not have the winning combination covered in my own permutations, but would have collected one if Djakadam had clung on for third!
It was a great result for us all the same, with the horse bouncing off the good ground and producing a magnificent jump under pressure at the last to seal the victory.
Elsewhere at the Festival, we had also backed Cantlow (Cross Country) and On The Fringe (Foxhunters) in some nice multiples, while we were on Yanworth, who went off 2/1 favourite for the Champion Hurdle, at 12/1 ante post. We also had prices up to 20/1 for Unowhatimeanharry, who went off 5/6 favourite in the Stayers' Hurdle!
Although all four of these fancied selections disappointed, we would have only needed one or two of them to have gone in, which was entirely feasible, and it would have been an excellent week with a further 20-30 pts on the board!
We are looking ahead to Aintree and also the AW Finals next, while the turf season is soon approaching too. The turf season, in particular in the summer, is where we are expecting to make the bulk of our profit this year.
Author: Wayne Finter | Date: 24th February 2017
I just wanted to say a big thank you to those of you who voted for Northern Monkey Punter in the 2017 SBC Tipster & Betting Awards - I'm delighted to say the service won the Gold Award in the Best Racing Tipster and Best Overall Tipster categories for the third year in a row!
Things don't always go smoothly when running the service and the inevitable losing runs never get any more bearable - even after seven years - but we're in it for the long haul and getting recognition in the shape of these awards for the good times makes the sacrifices and early morning finishes worthwhile!
For those who are not members of the Secret Betting Club and want to know more about their work, the SBC are an independent, long-standing and respected tipster review website that track services and betting systems covering a wide range of sports.
Their back catalogue of reviews dates back to 2006 and is accessible to members along with various other useful content including advice on how to run a portfolio of services and beat bookie restrictions (including how to use VPN's). The SBC are also currently running a "Better Betting" campaign against unfair bookmaker practices.
Thanks again to those who voted for NMP and here's hoping 2017 is as profitable as 2016!