Eurovision 2025 (Basel)

Ante post picks

13th May 2025

• Grand Final - Italy top 10 finish 16/5 Paddy Power - small bet

Bets before semi final 2

15th May 2025

• Finland to win SF 2 9/4 Coral, Ladbrokes to 2/1 Betfred (e-mailed to members as a bet on record)
• Sweden to win the Grand Final televote 8/13 Coral, Ladbrokes (e-mailed to members in a multi) - strong fancy
• Italy top 10 finish in Grand Final 21/10 Paddy Power to 7/4 Coral, Ladbrokes, (e-mailed to members in a multi)

Bets before Grand Final

16th May 2025

• Finland top 5 finish 11/8 William Hill
• Sweden to win Eurovision Evs Sky Bet, 10/11 William Hill - strong fancy
• France to win jury vote 2/1 William Hill 
• Sweden to win televote and overall 7/5 #WhatOdds Paddy Power special - strong fancy
• Sweden to win and France top three 10/3 #WhatOdds Paddy Power special
• Sweden to win and Finland top five Finland top five 3/1 #YourOdds William Hill special

Ante post Reasoning - 13th May 2025

The results from the first semi final have just been announced. Sweden, the ante-post favourites, impressed with their crowd pleaser and progressed along with the likes of the Netherlands, Estonia, and Poland.

The Popular Albania entry breezed through, as did the novelty entry from Iceland and surprise qualifiers San Marino and Portugal.

Belgium, who were priced around sixth in the ante post outright betting going into tonight, were the shock non-qualifiers.

My take home points from tonight’s show were:

A) This is a bad year

B) Sweden will dominate the televote and should win the whole competition if jury votes are split between the likes of Austria, Switzerland and France (and themselves)

C) ITALY, who performed tonight even though they are an automatic qualifier, must have a better chance of finishing in the top ten on Saturday than Paddy Power’s current odds of 16/5 imply

Italy haven’t finished outside of the top 10 in a grand final since 2016 and in 16 of the last 20 competitions they have finished in the top 10.

Sanremo, the Italian national selection, is fiercely a competitive process and bad songs just don’t emerge from it.

While it is true to say Volevo Essere Un Duro actually finished second at Sanremo this year  (the winner chose not to compete at Eurovision), and didn’t technically emerge as the intended pick of their viewers, it doesn’t detract from the fact Italy produce quality songs which usually do well at Eurovision.

I could see Italy finishing somewhere between 8-12th - hopefully 8th-10th if they bag a fair jury score.

The bet is by no means a banker, but the other angles which interest me for the final at the moment are all now odds on - Sweden to win the televote (banker), Switzerland top 10 finish and Finland top 10 finish so, for now, I’ll just nibble Italy top 10. Many firms do ‘bet builder-type’ specials on Saturday, which will provide more interest for the main night.

Even if Italy were 6/4 for the top 10, I’d be tempted, so 16/5 looks too big to ignore. 

Sweden, Austria, Netherlands, Switzerland and Finland would, at this stage, be my top five, with Israel and France likely to be top ten too. After that it looks quite open and there still look to be three other spots up for grabs.

Something might emerge from Thursday’s second semi but, as things stand, I’d fancy Italy’s chances, given their strong history in the comp, of fending off challenges from the likes of Ukraine, Albania or Estonia.

Grand Final preview - 16th May 2025

Switzerland host the 69th Eurovision song contest in Basel on Saturday evening, following Nemo's victory with The Code last year. The action kicks off at 8 pm - on BBC for those watching from the UK.

SWEDEN have been ante post favourites from quite a way out and are a best-priced evens on the eve of the final. Let's cut to the chase. Bara Bada Bastu is a novelty, upbeat, catchy song by KAJ, about saunas, and it would be a huge shock were the trio not to win.

In what appears a weak Eurovision year, the trio already held rock-solid claims prior to rehearsals, and there have been no negatives on stage in rehearsals, nor from their semi-final performance on Tuesday, to think they could be usurped. 

Sweden have topped the fan polls from quite a way out and the fun factor seemingly still hasn't worn off for a super-power nation bidding to win Eurovision for a record-breaking eighth time (currently level with Ireland). 

When the producers decided the running order on Thursday evening, Sweden were handed slot 23 of 26 - an ideal berth to hoover up televote support at the end of tomorrow evening, so their appeal has only heightened in the last week. 

I expect Sweden to dominate the televote, ahead of FINLAND, who I put up to win semi-final two in an e-mail to NMP members on Thursday. Erika Vikman's performance of Ich Komme was fantastic and set pulses racing - she dominated the stage despite being the only person on it, but Finland's hopes of beating Sweden in the televote were probably not helped by being awarded a middle draw. 

Finland had been drawn first-half, and the producers have probably done the best the could in putting them on as late as possible in the first-half given their possible options, but when the expectation is that Finland will draw more of their votes from the televoters, rather than the juries, an even higher draw would have been preferable for them. 

That said, I still think Ich Komme is such a striking performance that Erika could finish in the top-five behind Sweden and the countries I am expected to draw big jury scorers - France, Austria and Switzerland.

On that subject, I thought the 2/1 for FRANCE to win the jury vote looked fair. Austria's entry by JJ, who appeared on the UK show The Voice in 2020, Wasted Love, is described as "pop-opera track that culminates in explosive techno beats" and heads the 'to win the jury vote' betting, at a shades of odds on. 

While Austria's draw, ninth in the running order, is more likely to hinder their televote score more than their jury vote score, I just think the French entry, which has been gathering momentum this week and has been handed stall 24, is just better. The Austrian vocals are amazing, but the French staging, with 'sand' falling on singer Louane during Maman, looks visually brilliant. It sounds great too. 

The hosts are on in 19th and should be bankers for a top-ten finish providing they score 150-200 ish with the juries, and how high they finish in the top 10 will likely then be dependent on how much support they can garner from the public - France being on later than them hasn't helped Switzerland, either.

Another nation likely to be frustrated with their position in the running order is ITALY. We backed them at 16/5 to finish in the top 10 prior to their live rehearsal (even though they'd automatically qualified as one of the 'big five' nations) and then topped up again in between the semis. I won't like, I hoped to see them drawn 20-26th, but the producers look to have put them away by burying them in 14th. 

However, as mentioned above, a bad draw is considered more detrimental to televote scorers than jury vote scores, and I still hope Lucio Corsi will bank a solid jury score and pick up enough televote support to scrape into the top 10. It is quite an interesting juxtaposition having them on after the Finnish dominatrix given Volevo Essere Un Doro is a classic, stylish, melodic entry (it is Italian, so what else would you expect?!) that features piano, a guitar duet and a harmonica.  

As mentioned in my earlier write-up, I think Italy could finish anywhere between 8th and 12th. At the prices, they just looked to be offering a spot of value and we needed to get them onside. I'd probably leave them out of strong-stake bet builders, mind, now we know their draw.

The 'winners' from the running order draw are Malta and Albania, who perform 20th and 26th, respectively, and must now be considered live top 10 contenders. 

There has been good support for Albania since rehearsals for the semis began. I don't get the appeal, personally, but the fact they have been trusted with closing the show perhaps points to them performing well in their semi on Tuesday and the market vibes mean they have to be seriously considered.

Estonia's Espresso Macchiato has been popular among Eurovision fans and has apparently angered some Italians, who feel the song is mocking them, but stall three hasn't been ideal for them, given their main support is likely to come from the televote. The Netherlands, too, would have hoped for a higher draw, but they have a popular song that is expected to finish in the top 10.

Any bet builders incorporating Sweden to win outright, Sweden to win the televote, or France and/or Finland to finish top five would interest me. If wanting bigger odds - then accas involving Estonia or (at a bigger price), Italy or maybe Malta for the top 10 would be my other possible picks if having a small bet. 

I am personally less sweet on the likes of Albania, Israel, Ukraine and Greece than the market is, but Albania and Israel look likely to be thereabouts, nevertheless. 

At the other end of the leader board, the big five nations are usually prominent in the 'to finish bottom' market. It is easy to understand why the UK's mad entry, What The Hell Just Happened is 6/4 favourite, given a poor position in the running order before second favourites Austria, but there have been some shocks in qualifying this year and it is possible one of the surprise qualifiers might just get lost in a final and pick up the wooden spoon. I am just more interested in backing several of the other special markets, rather than playing in this one.

May add some last minute bets tomorrow.

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