2016 Review
Slow start
In traditional NMP fashion, with a lack of domestic turf racing to get our teeth stuck into in the opening months of the year, 2016 started slowly.
One of the early highlights of January was seeing Pensax Lad (9/1) win at Wolverhampton but we didn't really gather any momentum until the last ten days of the month or so, when Realize (5/1), Bromyard (6/4), Anglophile (11/4) and Jebediah Shine (5/1) all won in a row.
After slipping -11 pts into the red, we finished the month -2 pts down after a late recovery. However, although the all-weather results were steady, we began to build an ante post portfolio of bets for Cheltenham and started to lay some foundations for a big period ahead.
Fruitful February
February was a fantastic month and we made +26 pts profit from 41 pts outlaid (+63 % ROI). Razin' Hell (5/1), Bosham (4/1), Split The Atom (10/3), Rivellino (12/1), Grendisar (10/3) and Brother Tiger (8/1) all got winners on the board early in the month and set the tempo early on. We came close to winning big off multiples the day Rivellino and Grendisar went in one Saturday at Lingfield as the third pick, Shyron, finished second of 12 at 5/1 (SP).
Other winners included Moon River (7/1), Sir Maximilian (9/1), Lightscameraction (7/1) and, notably, Unowhatimeanharry in a Pertemps qualifier at Exeter. Harry Fry's charge (pictured below winning at Cheltenham, (c) John Grossick/Racing Post) was only 9/2 that day, but members were advised to back him for the Festival thereafter, advice which bore fruit during the Festival itself when he went on to win the Albert Bartlett.
We also landed a little treble on three bankers at Meydan; Safety Check, Marking and California Chrome, which paid between 9/4 and 5/2 at SP (which went on record) but was available at larger odds in the morning.
Majestic March
The good run of form with the all-weather selections continued into March and we had winners such as Jack Of Diamonds (4/1), Shyron (10/3), Kristal Hart (7/1), Zac Brown (11/1), Razin' Hell (12/1), Moon River (5/1), Ancient Sands (5/2), Volunteer Point (4/1). However, it was a month that was mainly about Cheltenham, as members enjoyed a superb week and made +26 pts of Festival profit to the lowest quoted odds in e-mails.
Winners included Unowhatimeanharry (25/1) in the Albert Bartlett, Sizing John (w/o Douvan) (16/1) in the Arkle, Mall Dini (20/1) in the Pertemps Final, Ivanovich Gorbatov (8/1) in the Triumph, Yorkhill (3/1) in the Neptune and On The Fringe (11/4) in the Foxhunters.
We also copped decent returns off multiples involving all-weather winners / ante post wagers on Douvan in the Arkle, Vroum Vroum Mag in the Mares Hurdle, Thistlecrack in the World Hurdle, Limini in the Mares Novice Hurdle and Ivanovich Gorbatov in the Triumph.
We were on Valseur Lido (placed 33/1 EW) and Road To Riches (placed 12/1 EW) in the Ryanair and our main ante post fancy in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Djakadam, also ran a cracker to finish second.
Awful April
April wasn't a great month for us and after making +56 points across February and March we handed 19 pts back in April - riding out the inevitable comedown that follows highly profitable spells, given the cyclical nature of winning/losing runs.
May started well for us, though, with No Heretic (16/1) winning the Chester Cup and Moonlight Magic (9/1) winning the Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown. We ended May with a small (-7 pt) loss but as we entered the summer, we saw the service's traditional summer revival take place.
We didn't manage to find the Ascot Gold Cup winner again like the previous year but we were on Diamond Jubilee winner Twilight Son (4/1) and smacked the crossbar with two gambles in the handicaps - Librisa Breeze (12/1) was second in the Royal Hunt Cup and our 3 pt MAX bet Brando, who we were on at prices up to 16/1 ante post, as well as in some on-the-day doubles, was a head second in the Wokingham.
We collected a place return, but had Brando won, we would have copped a total profit of between 48 pts to 57 pts (lowest vs highest odds available at the time of bet issue. The lowest prices always go on my records). We were so close!!
Other winners in June included Shadow Game (11/4) and Final (9/4) at Beverley (both of whom were also backed in a double) and then Sindarban winning the Cumberland Plate at Carlisle (9/1), Powerallied at Chester (7/2 -10p R4) and Growl at Windsor (15/2). It would be fair to say we developed something of a soft spot for the latter during the course of the year......
Ante post agony
Members were advised to back Growl ante post at odds of 25/1 for the Stewards' Cup weeks before the big race and we continued to top up on the horse at prices down to 14/1 up to the day and had big stakes rolling onto him from only a small outlay - both Fang (6/1) and Take Cover (11/1) had been advised as selections in the first legs of doubles with Growl, too.
A Growl victory would have been worth between +123.55 pts (worst prices) to +156.60 (best prices) to members as a result, but sadly the horse was beaten into fourth from a bad draw and after meeting lots of trouble in running. Ryan Moore said after the race that he felt the horse should have won.
I'm not talking through my pocket, either, as I took some insurance out against our ante post bets and members backed the winner, Dancing Star, (6/1) and second, Orion's Bow (8/1) both each-way as well.
All three picks in the 28 runner Stewards' Cup thus made the frame for us and we still made a nice profit in the race.
A joyous July
Things really clicked into place for us in July and we enjoyed a superb month.
The highlight was Take Cover winning the King George Stakes for us at Glorious Goodwood (16/1), while other notable winners were Best Trip (9/1), Chiclet (7/1), Final Venture (15/2) and 3 pt MAX bet Kimberella (7/1), who dotted up in the Sky Bet Dash at York the same day (image (c) Racing Post) we also landed a gamble on Librisa Breeze (8/1 into 3/1) in the International Handicap at Ascot.
We also landed two nice doubles on Chiclet/St Michel and then Best Trip/Just Glamorous. Because the doubles are settled at SP with my service, most members easily beat my +36 pt profit figure (to lowest advised prices) for July and were in a position whereby they'd achieved 100 % bank growth since 1st January (if using my recommendation of an 80 pt betting bank).
"The bullet" is fired in France
August was a steady away month in which we broke even.
We started slowly but finished well with winners such as Sors (8/1) at the Curragh, El Astronaute (5/1) at Epsom and a double on two Richard Whitaker sprinters at Ripon - Pipers Note and Love Island. The double paid +12.31 pts profit at SP but members yielded greater returns than that in reality if they took morning prices.
September started well when we banged in 33/1 shot Just Glamorous in the Prix du Petit Couvert on Arc Trials Day at Chantilly. He hacked up with a fine front running ride, returning odds of 20.70 on the PMU (French Tote) and never looked like getting caught - even by solid sprint yardstick Goldream (image (c) Edward Whitaker/Racing Post). I nicknamed him "the Bullet" thereafter!
We were narrowly denied another whopping ante post return with Growl finishing second in the Ayr Gold Cup, though we did take consolation from Penglai Pavilion dotting up in the Cesarewitch Trial at odds of 10/1 for us five minutes later.
Another notable day was Sunday 4th September in which I sent out three sprint selections and all won. Tithonus (13/2), Nameitwhatyoulike (9/2) and Dark Defender (7/1) went in at Dundalk and York, with members staking as little as £4 EW and £2 win bets on these selections in multiples (off their own back and in addition to the profit from the singles I had advised) reporting four figure returns on the day!
Ardad (11/1), Sheikhzayedroad (6/1) and Captain Colby (10/1) all winning big races at Doncaster's St Leger meeting proved additional positives in September, a month in which we yielded a small (+3.75 pt) profit.
Patience rewarded
We had been knocking hard on the door with our big ante post Flat selections and landed a big coup on Champions Day at Ascot when The Tin Man (8/1) landed a MAX bet for us and several doubles (win and each-way) in the Champions Sprint in October.
We also had the 80/1 second, Growl, onside each-way, so it really was a superb result for us.
It was somewhat ironic that the two horses which had been touched off when on the verge of landing us large ante post returns earlier in the season - Growl and Brando - were the 2nd and 3rd in this race on the day when we finally landed a big chop (image (c) Mark Cranham/Racing Post).
Could anyone have written a better script?!!
The tricast paid £4383.09 to a £1 stake (it paid £12,278.90 on the Tote, for comparison, if anyone had played it) and was a nice bonus if played on top of the singles and doubles advised to all members on the first and second.
We made a small profit in October of +7.87 pts - Caspian Prince (6/1) at Dundalk proving the highlight, and made a loss of -10 pts in November.
The 2016 NMP service ended on the 7th November - the day after the November handicap meeting at Doncaster (the 2017 service began several days later).
End of year figures (1st Jan - 7th Nov)
Total Pts Staked: 818.73
Total Profit: +77.66 pts
Seasonal ROI: +9 %
Seasonal ROC: +97 % (using 80 pt betting bank)
